The Manila Times

Inoculations need to be speeded up to 600,000 daily

THE country needs to vaccinate against Covid-19 at a much faster pace to realize herd immunity by year-end. Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr., the vaccination czar, reported the daily average of shots given has been increasing, recently to 83,000 a day. He hopes to improve to 150,000 daily.

But even if the daily average reaches that target, only 34.2 million people will receive a shot by year-end. That would be only 49 percent of the population the government hopes to inoculate.

The goal is to vaccinate at least 70 percent of the population or about 70 million Filipinos. As an added challenge, nearly all the vaccines developed, so far, require two injections. So, the estimate has to be doubled, meaning the total shots needed will be at least 140 million.

The Philippines has a long way to go. As of May 14, 2021, only 0.60 percent of Filipinos have been fully vaccinated. About 2.1 million have received a shot, but only around 630,000 have gotten two.

Assuming the country only has 68 million left to vaccinate against Covid-19, around 600,000 people should be getting injections daily. We derive it by taking 68 million, times two shots, and divided by 228, which is the number of days left until Dec. 31, 2021.

The authorities seem to be aware of this daunting number. Mr. Galvez was quoted in the media, saying daily inoculations will increase in pace from a crawl, then to a walk and finally to a run.

Of course, our estimates are premised on the availability of supply. But there is good news on that front with more deliveries arriving. Not only is inventory growing, but there is some brand variety now.

Brands are not particularly important. As we have said before, the best vaccine is the one available. But having variety means more people can be vaccinated safely. If someone is allergic or prone to side effects to a particular brand, he or she can choose an alternative rather than forego vaccination.

Scenarios

We concede 600,000 daily is an intimidating number, compared to the present rate of vaccinations. To be realistic, the authorities should consider alternatives in case vaccine deliveries will be delayed again later.

For instance, the government can consider prioritizing herd immunity in Metro Manila and other urban centers across the country. Doing so should help with faster recovery at least from the economic fallout. Metro Manila alone accounts for 36 percent of gross domestic product and for urban centers between 75 percent and 80 percent.

If the authorities pursue that suggestion, they should target an inoculation rate of higher than 70 percent for cities and other densely populated areas. That seems to be the minimum estimate for herd immunity anyway. We have heard experts also mention 85 percent.

So, if we prioritize 85 percent of the 51 million Filipinos living in urban centers nationwide, the daily average shots needed before year-end dips to about 380,000. That is still more than twice what Mr. Galvez hopes to do today, but that might be more attainable than 600,000 daily.

Of course, we do not suggest that people in rural areas are less important than those in cities. This alternative is only relevant if the government does not have the capacity and inventory to realize herd immunity nationwide. But it is noteworthy to mention that viruses might spread slower in rural communities where residents are dispersed.

The point is leaders need to prepare for the unexpected. And they should act quickly.

Consider what Israel and Singapore did. Israel, which leads the world in Covid-19 vaccinations, is already looking to purchase more vaccines in case a third or booster shots will be needed later; perhaps next year. Singapore, for its part, was able to get vaccines early by placing orders with several pharmaceuticals before any of them received authorization from health authorities.

Granted, the Philippines cannot be compared to sparsely populated countries such as Israel and Singapore. But these do offer examples of how this pandemic can be managed more effectively.

Opinion

en-ph

2021-05-17T07:00:00.0000000Z

2021-05-17T07:00:00.0000000Z

https://digitaledition.manilatimes.net/article/281608128324233

The Manila Times