IN the spirit of full disclosure, I want to put on record that I do not write on the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test and false positives in order to personally avoid being tested for Covid-19. In fact, I have been tested for the virus and I have tested negative. I am also doubly vaccinated and have thankfully been spared from infection.

If I press the issue of stopping the current indiscriminate policy of testing for Covid, it is primarily in the hope of reversing a misguided policy and of advancing the pursuit today of full economic recovery and the normalization of life.

Reasons for policy change

There are compelling reasons why the Philippines should abandon its current policy of testing for Covid both symptomatic and asymptomatic persons with the PCR test for Covid-19. In addition to the guidance provided by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which I discussed previously, I want to discuss today two other major reasons for policy change.

The first is the warning by the World Health Organization (WHO) that the PCR test could create false positives.

The second is published explanation by the PCR test’s inventor, Dr. Kary Mullis, on how and why the test can be mistaken.

WHO on PCR false positives

On December 20 last year, Tyler Durden reported in the Guardian and the Zero hedge website that the WHO released on Dec. 14, 2020, a guidance memo on the PCR test, warning that high cycle thresholds on PCR tests would result in false positives.

The PCR tests are based on polymerase chain reaction. PCR works by taking nucleotides — tiny fragments of DNA or RNA — and replicating them until they become something large enough to identify. The replication is done in cycles, with each cycle doubling the amount of genetic material. The number of cycles it takes to produce something identifiable is known as the “cycle threshold” or “CT value.” The higher the CT value, the less likely you are to be detecting anything significant.

The WHO memo states that using a high CT value to test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 will produce false positives.

To quote the memo: “Users of RT-PCR reagents should read the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is necessary to account for any background noise which may lead to a specimen with a high cycle threshold (Ct) value result being interpreted as a positive result.”

It goes on to explain: “The design principle of RT-PCR means that for patients with high levels of circulating virus (viral load), relatively few cycles will be needed to detect virus and so the Ct value will be low. Conversely, when specimens return a high Ct value, it means that many cycles were required to detect the virus. In some circumstances, the distinction between background noise and actual presence of the target virus is difficult to ascertain.”

None of this is news to anyone who has been paying attention. That PCR tests are easily manipulated and potentially highly inaccurate. It’s common knowledge that any test using a CT value over 35 is potentially meaningless.

Inventor on PCR test

The issue is rife in the British press because of the recent alarm in the UK about a spike in new infections. It is contended by some sectors of the UK press that the pandemic could end quickly if the PCR test is dropped.

Notable among the media outlets floating this line is the Londonbased Daily Exposé blog, which ran the following headline in April: “Pandemic would end tomorrow if they stopped using the PCR test.”

It reported: “In testing for the virus in the pandemic, the test of choice is the PCR test.

“In 1985, Dr. Kary Mullis invented the process known as PCR, in which a small amount of DNA can be copied in large quantities over a short period of time. By applying heat, the DNA molecule’s two strands are separated, and the DNA building blocks that have been added are bonded to each strand. With the help of the enzyme DNA polymerase, new DNA chains are formed, and the process can then be repeated.

“Kary Mullis won a Nobel prize for his invention. But Kary Mullis also said the following:

“‘PCR is a process used to make a whole lot of something out of something, it doesn’t tell you that you’re sick and it doesn’t tell you that the thing you ended up with is going to hurt you.’

“In essence what he said was that if you look hard enough with PCR you can find anything, as all molecules can be found in anything and everything.

“PCR tests look for genetic matter from the new coronavirus using amplification cycles. However, the number of amplification cycles that was needed to detect genetic matter from the virus, which is referred to as the cycle threshold, typically isn’t included in test results sent to doctors and patients. Many coronavirus tests have fairly high cycle thresholds, with most set at 40 and some set at 37. That means a number of patients who aren’t carrying much of the new coronavirus are still testing positive, even though they may not be contagious.

“Dr. Mullis was clear that the PCR process wasn’t meant as a diagnostic tool, saying: ‘With PCR, if you do it well, you can find almost anything in anybody.’

“And, commenting on cycle thresholds, he said: ‘If you have to go more than 40 cycles to amplify a single-copy gene, there is something seriously wrong with your PCR.’

“This has all been public knowledge since the beginning of the lockdown. The Australian government’s website said the tests were flawed, and a court in Portugal ruled they were not fit for purpose.

“James Bethell, one of England’s health ministers, stated that ‘swab testing people with no symptoms is not an accurate way of screening the general population, because there is a real risk of giving false reassurance.’ He added, “Widespread asymptomatic testing could undermine the value of testing, as there is a risk of giving misleading results. Rather, only people with Covid-19 symptoms should get tested.’”

False positive lead to wrong policies

Here therefore is the problem. People with no symptoms are being tested, and the tests are being carried out at high cycles where it is essentially possible to find anything you want to find, according to the inventor of the test. So, there can be no doubt we’re seeing a humongous number of false positives, but these false positives lead to people and their contacts having to stay at home in isolation for two weeks. But what’s worse than that is that the false positives are used to justify authoritarian policies.

If this information is correct, the Philippines must fully review its Covid-19 testing system. Our count and classification of cases may be similarly flawed and doubtful. The Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases may be making decisions based on wrong information and false assumptions.

The Department of Health has not acknowledged a single false positive in the country. However, the head of the Department of Budget and Management, who has reportedly tested positive for Covid, declares that she was falsely pronounced positive eight times before finally getting cleared.

Based on her case alone, the PCR test should be turned on its head, and the testing of asymptomatic persons should totally stop.