The Manila Times

As the virus retreats, will there be violence ahead?

air force drills in the Philippine Sea last month. As for China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), it sent more than 100 aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), the most ever, in October and reportedly tested a hypersonic projectile in its race to catch up with the massive US nuclear arsenal.

As this column cautioned a month ago (“The very real threat of conflict over Taiwan” https://www.manilatimes. net/2021/11/07/opinion/columns/the-very-realthreat-ofconflict-over-taiwan/1821227), the invitation to and expected participation of Taiwan in the Summit for Democracy, hosted by President Joseph Biden on Thursday and Friday, December 9 and 10, cannot but escalate tensions with China and may just spark military action.

Already, Beijing is furious over Washington’s invitation to the island’s leaders, who have projected itself as a frontline in the global battle between democracy and authoritarianism. No less than Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen wrote in the Foreign Policy journal (“In “Taiwan and the Fight for Democracy: A Force for Good in the Changing International Order” https:// www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/taiwan/2021-10-05/taiwan-and-fightdemocracy):” Taiwan’s refusal to give up, its persistent embrace of democracy and its commitment to act as a responsible stakeholder (even when its exclusion from international institutions has made that difficult) are now spurring the rest of the world to reassess its value as a liberal democracy on the frontlines of a new clash of ideologies.” As countries increasingly recognize the threat that the Chinese Communist

Party poses, they should understand the value of working with Taiwan. And they should remember that if Taiwan were to fall, the consequences would be catastrophic for regional peace and the democratic alliance system. It would signal that in today’s “global contest of values, authoritarianism has the upper hand over democracy.” The ante got even higher last week when the US Seventh Fleet commander, Vice Admiral Karl Thomas, said military exercises with allies like the one last week were to deter “aggressive or authoritarian” countries from overreaching in the region (https://www.military. com/daily-news/2021/12/01/ five-nation-pacific- naval-drillssend-message-aggressive-adversaries-admiral-says.html).

As if that weren’t enough to get the PLA’s attention, Secretary of the US Army Christine Wormuth made it plain that American forces were seeking greater access in Southeast Asia (https:// www.usnews.com/news/world/ articles/2021-12- 01/u-s-armykeen-to-expand-southeast-asiaaccess-amid-china-worries).

Plainly, if the Summit for Democracy mobilizes countries not only to protect Taiwan, but also to give it greater international participation, as the US has urged members of the United Nations, there would surely be strong reactions among patriotic and militarist sectors in China, which may then pressure President Xi Jinping to take strong action.

Which may well be what the US and Taiwan want, so as to get the world behind the island. And that could be even more worrisome for the world if not panic- spreading, especially for global markets, economies and enterprises, than Omicron.

Opinion

en-ph

2021-12-05T08:00:00.0000000Z

2021-12-05T08:00:00.0000000Z

https://digitaledition.manilatimes.net/article/281668258262291

The Manila Times