First of 2 parts

THE incoming administration headed by President-elect Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is faced with a myriad of challenges and opportunities amid the shifting global geopolitical landscape. Therefore, the need to proactively navigate through these external conditions is necessary for the Philippines to maximize and secure its interests. Accordingly, this is the kind of approach the incoming Marcos administration seems to be prepared for. The formulation of a potential Marcos Doctrine in Philippine foreign policy will most likely center on three interrelated variables: geography, power and perception. The foundation of this doctrine is what I like to call proactive autonomy.

To begin with, it is important to differentiate autonomy from neutrality. While the concept of neutrality in international politics has often been attributed to countries that are non-aligned or not involved in any formal and binding treaty, autonomy indicates the ability of a country to maneuver based on its multi-dimensional interests, while upholding its responsibilities under treaty alliances. The concept of proactivity indicates that structural factors, such as the material distribution of power, may influence a country’s foreign policy, but it does not have a direct impact on its foreign policy trajectory. Rather, a country will engage externally based on the relationship between systemic variables and its ability to leverage its national attributes, which encompass the country’s overall economic capacity, its geography, domestic stability and the strength of its diplomatic network.

As a result, the national attributes make a significant difference in the manner and timing of a country’s foreign policy implementation and trajectory amid the shifts in the systemic distribution of power. In summary, proactive autonomy is an approach that leverages on a country’s national attributes to maximize its interests amid the systemic shifts in the global distribution of power without falling victim to great power dynamics. Proactive autonomy, therefore, serves as an important and practical buffer between the effects of external forces and the trajectory of a country’s engagements in the international system. However, it must be noted that the effectiveness of utilizing proactive autonomy as a foreign policy approach will depend on the strength of the national attributes of a country and the perception of the head of government (and head of state).

The Philippines finds itself at the crossroads of several critical dynamics that will shape the future of Asian geopolitics in the 21st century. The most striking feature is the intensifying power competition between the United States and China. While the US is the Philippines’ sole and most important treaty ally and security partner, China has cemented itself as a powerful immediate neighbor and the Southeast Asian country’s major trading partner. While in the past, Manila’s foreign policy was often reactively drawn toward the brewing power competition, significant attempts to recalibrate Philippine foreign policy was witnessed through President Rodrigo Duterte’s independent foreign policy.

Duterte aimed to diversify partnerships to maximize the strategic capabilities of the Philippines. However, this approach was received negatively by certain groups in policy and academic circles for its alleged compromise of the alliance with the US. On the contrary, it is quite safe to say that the Philippines-US alliance remains intact and robust with several key achievements such as witnessing the largest iteration of the Balikatan exercise and maintaining close strategic engagements on a wide array of issues despite a few hiccups along the way. In addition, the Duterte administration also welcomed key security arrangements such as the Quad and Aukus. Regarding China, there was indeed a more positive shift toward Beijing compared to the previous Aquino 3rd administration. However, to say that the Philippines has jumped on any bandwagon is a stark misjudgment. While maintaining pleasant economic ties with China, the Philippines continued to address a series of assertive maneuvers from Beijing against its sovereign rights in the

South China Sea. The government, through the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Department of National Defense, often responded in a straightforward fashion.

In fact, maritime patrols to the South China Sea have significantly increased in both scope and frequency under the Duterte administration. Furthermore, the drive to shift toward maritime security also coincided with new opportunities to reinvigorate defense cooperation with other key countries in and out of the region, including Turkey, South Korea and India. Moreover, a breakthrough was also achieved in the Philippines-Japan strategic partnership with the establishment of the first ever two-plus-two meeting in April. Additionally, talks have been made to enhance Philippines-Australia relations into a strategic partnership. Furthermore, Duterte will be leaving office with the Philippines bouncing back strong from the crippling effects of the pandemic and the unfolding situation in Ukraine with a growth forecast of up to 8 percent this year according to a report by Standard Chartered chief economist for Southeast Asia and India Edward Lee and economist Jonathan Koh.

To be continued on Sunday, May 29, 2022.