THE present situation around Taiwan has some very striking similarities with the situation in the western part of Russia near the Ukraine border.

In the fourth quarter of 2021, Vladimir Putin massed thousands of Russian soldiers and heavy military equipment near Russia’s boundary with Ukraine, saying that the troop buildup was just a military exercise.

The Russian army’s intrusion into Ukraine was justified by Putin as a war to “demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine.” He said that the invasion of Ukraine was aimed at “protecting the people” whom Putin considered to have been bullied by the Ukrainian government. He also added that Russia wanted to ensure that Ukraine remains “neutral.”

A couple of weeks ago, China mobilized its army’s Western Command by surrounding Taiwan with warships and conducting fly-by operations in the skies around the island, as part of what it called “military drills.” The Chinese government announced that these activities represent its disgust over the visit of the US House of Representatives Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan. China claimed that the visit was an interference in Chinese domestic affairs.

While the armed conflict in Ukraine is being fought with ferocity, it has caused so much human misery not only in Ukraine and Russia, but in many other countries of Europe and elsewhere. In the same breath, the escalation of military activities around Taiwan is expected to bring myriad problems to countries in Asia and the Pacific.

The war in Ukraine has caused the loss of the lives of more than 10,000 men and women in uniform and of more than 5,400 civilians to date. For non-combatants in Ukraine, the war has led to the loss of jobs, income, homes, separation from families, hunger, ill health and even death.

The humanitarian crisis caused by the war is one problem that countries in Europe now confront. The United Nations has reported that there are now more than 12 million people who have either left Ukraine altogether to seek safe refuge in other countries or are “internally displaced,” having fled their homes to seek safety and shelter in another part of their country.

The war in Ukraine has led to many global economic repercussions. Energy prices have gone up all around the globe as major importers of Russian oil and gas have been forced to source their energy requirements away from Russia. This was mainly due to the embargo on Russian oil spearheaded by the United States. The other oil-producing countries, in turn, refused to increase their oil production to compensate for what Russia was providing to European countries before the hostilities in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has also adversely impacted the supply of wheat and corn throughout the world. Accordingly, most countries which are not even near the conflict have had to bear the high costs of food. Together with the soaring prices of oil and oil products, the increase in prices for staple products has caused inflation in many countries, including the Philippines.

The tense situation in Taiwan will surely further exacerbate the economic problems throughout the world. In a globalized economy, it is difficult for any country to be isolated from the ill effects of war wherever it is being fought.

The conflict in Taiwan, however, is to a large extent, different from that in Ukraine albeit the economic, financial and humanitarian repercussions may be the same.

Taiwan, one must concede, is really a part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This is clear in the “one China policy” being adhered to by most countries. There are just 15 countries that have not yet adopted the one China policy. The core of this policy is in accord with the declaration of the People’s Republic of China that “there is only one sovereign state under the name of China, with the PRC as the sole legitimate government of that China and Taiwan is a part of China.”

The Philippines, the United States of America, and the overwhelming majority of the countries in the United Nations have adopted the one China policy. Under international law, a country that has acceded to the one China policy should consider any activity, military or otherwise, of the China government to assert control of Taiwan as a domestic affair of China.” The United States, however, has adopted what many consider as “strategic ambiguity” in the interpretation and implementation of the one China policy.

The US Congress enacted a law called the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). Its main objective is clearly stated in the title to “help maintain peace, security and stability in the Western Pacific and to promote the foreign policy of the United States authorizing the continuation, commercial, cultural and other relations of the United States and the people in Taiwan.” Under this US law, the supply of war materials to Taiwan or even outright military intervention may be justified.

This was invoked by President Clinton in 1996 in response to the Taiwan Strait Crisis, which involved China launching a series of missile tests in the Taiwan Strait. Using the TRA as the legal basis, President Clinton dispatched two aircraft carriers near Taiwan to ostensibly “monitor the situation.”

China has a strong historical basis for its claim that Taiwan is a territory of the People’s Republic of China. In 1949, the rebel army of the Communist Party of China under the leadership of Mao Zedong defeated the Republic of China (ROC) armed forces, forcing the government of the ROC led by its president Chiang Kai-shek to flee to Taiwan.

On the mainland, the Chinese Communist Party established the new Chinese state to be known as the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Since 1949, the People’s Republic of China has not really made strong moves to integrate Taiwan. The Republic of China was allowed to exist and develop as a capitalist and democratic country. The communist leadership of China was preoccupied with consolidating power and strengthening its economy and its military force. There were only short and limited armed skirmishes between China and Taiwan. For instance, in 1950, the PRC recovered Hainan, Wanshan and Zhousan islands.

The present siege of Taiwan may be the strongest effort of China to realize “China’s complete reunification” by securing Taiwan into its fold. This will end the democratic and capitalist system under which Taiwan has become one of the most prosperous countries in the region.

Any eruption of open armed conflict in Taiwan, however, will exacerbate the disruptions in the global supply chain already being experienced throughout the world due to the war in Ukraine.

Surely, a war in Taiwan will disrupt the transport of goods from Asia to the rest of the world as trade routes in the South China Sea and the West Philippine Sea might not be safe for navigation.

The emerging conflict between Taiwan, China and the United States has many implications for our own nation, including our external security concerns over the West Philippine Sea. We hope the BBM government will study the situation carefully and encourage the resolution of this conflict through international diplomacy.

For, after all, peace and the security of our people matter most.