THE El Niño phenomenon may occur late this month or in July but some areas in the country, particularly Luzon, may experience above normal rainfall conditions, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Monday.

The weather bureau expects 10 to 15 tropical cyclones to enter or form within the Philippine Area of Responsibility from June to October this year.

Weather specialist Benison Estareja said the onset of the wet season does not mean that it would be raining all the time.

“We have this what we call monsoon breaks wherein we can experience cloudy but hot weather due to the absence of the southwest monsoon,” Estareja said.

He said that despite the onset of El Niño, which leads to dry spells and droughts, some areas may also have above normal rainfall.

“In fact during the third quarter of the year, it is possible that the country will experience strong typhoons and heavy rainfall and only on the last months of the year and first quarter of 2024 that we may experience less rainfall,” the Pagasa forecaster said.

El Niño is a weather condition characterized by unusually warmer than average sea surface temperatures at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Citing Pagasa’s monitoring track, Estareja said some of the tropical cyclones may make landfall in Luzon and Visayas while others may enhance the southwest monsoon, specifically in the western part of the country.