IN a November 28, 2022 press release, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) announced the approval of a five-year Comprehensive Traffic Management Plan (CTMP) for Metro Manila. Given the prevailing mobility crisis and worsening road congestion, nothing would be more timely or more welcome than a massive effort to transform the mobility environment in the metropolis. I was hoping to see an approach that diverged from the many past failed strategies that led to the current crisis. I was disappointed, however, to find more of the same in the CTMP, which perpetuates the unsuccessful formula of prioritizing road space for private cars and pursuing faster private vehicle speeds rather than the safe and efficient movement of people.

In the world’s major cities, solving traffic congestion and fighting climate change consists of making public transport, walking, and cycling the most attractive options for travel and introducing policies to curb the growth in private motor vehicle use so that car owners leave their vehicles at home. One lesson that has been learned painfully over many decades is that measures that focus on making private motor vehicles go faster are bound to fail because of the phenomenon of induced demand. Any congestion relief from an additional lane, new urban expressway or better traffic signals is only temporary; these end up attracting increased car use and soon after traffic is back to where it was before or worse.

We have already observed the effects of induced demand in the many roads and bridges that were built or expanded in Metro Manila with the objective of making private cars go faster — and which have failed. Take a look at Commonwealth Ave. with nine lanes in each direction, the elevated Skyway that promised to reduce EDSA congestion, and the recently completed BGC-Kalayaan Bridge — all intended to fix traffic but themselves now sources of traffic. We have seen this time and again.

The CTMP suffers from the same flaw, ignoring the impact of induced demand. The core of the CTMP is to solve 209 intersection “bottlenecks” where vehicles move slowly or are frequently stuck in traffic (these are further divided into 42 priority bottlenecks and 167 non-critical bottlenecks). Because the CTMP is mostly about enabling vehicles to move faster through these “bottleneck” intersections and achieve shorter travel times, the main beneficiaries of the CTMP are private car owners. Accordingly, a key performance indicator or measure of success for CTMP is private vehicle travel

speed as measured through Waze data.

Private cars are the least efficient users of road space. Good quality sidewalks, protected bike lanes, and dedicated lanes for public transport can move five to 10 times more people than the same road space used by cars. It is also important to remember that households with cars represent only about 12 percent of the population of Metro Manila — a very small minority — and car owners are already privileged to be traveling in relative comfort and convenience.

Traffic management and transportation policies should therefore be designed to benefit the vast majority who do not own cars, remain mobility-deprived, and suffer difficult daily commutes. When a road is congested with cars, it makes sense to utilize part of the existing road space to enable more efficient and environment-friendly travel modes to operate and flow smoothly. A lane transformed into an exclusive busway or a protected bike lane encourages those with private motor vehicles to shift to more efficient, inclusive, and environment-friendly travel modes.

Despite repeated mentions in the CTMP of “inclusive and people-oriented mobility” and “maximizing the mobility of all users of transportation infrastructure”, the plan perpetuates the same car-centric strategy that has led us to the traffic and mobility nightmare we are all experiencing. Throughout the report, the CTMP regards private motor vehicles as having priority in the use of road space, contradicting the explicit directive in the National Transport Policy. In doing so, the CTMP perpetuates the lie that roads should be reserved for private motor vehicles and that cars have a superior entitlement to the use of road space.

There is no suggestion in the CTMP that the current allocation of road space could be revised in order to serve the needs of all road users (public transport, pedestrians, cyclists, and private vehicles) in a fair and efficient manner. There is no effort to determine a revised allocation of the current road space among the various travel modes in order to maximize the throughput of people and goods. There is no recommendation that an existing lane be for the exclusive use of public transport or converted to a protected bike lane or sidewalk. The implicit message is that sidewalks, bike lanes or public transport infrastructure improvements will be possible only when additional right-ofway is obtained. Accordingly, the CIMP sends the wrong signal that pedestrians, cyclists, and public transport users enjoy lower priority in the use of roads.

There is also no mention in the CTMP that the uncontrolled growth in the use of private motor vehicles is the main cause of traffic congestion and that only a small minority in the population are the main users of roads. There is no suggestion that some roads could even be made car-free or exclusive for public transport, walking, and cycling. While there is mention of the need to improve road safety and to reduce injuries and fatalities from road crashes, the lowering of vehicle speed limits is not given as a strategy to reduce significantly the incidence and severity of road crashes. The CTMP talks about improving traffic signals but it is all about making cars go faster; there is no mention that traffic signals should be programmed so that public transport, bicycles or pedestrians are given priority at intersections.

Because the CTMP reinforces the priority and dominance of private motor vehicles on roads (which ultimately attracts greater motor vehicle use), it will make mobility worse for all of us. When public transport, walking and cycling are insufficient, unavailable or unattractive, Filipinos are motivated to buy a private motor vehicle as soon as they can afford one. Instead of facilitating a shift to sustainable transport modes, the CTMP keeps us on the downward spiral of car-dependency. The tragedy is that this damaging advice is offered to national and local agencies that are responsible for improving our mobility environment.